What if Buhari wins?

Nigerians will on February 16, 2019 go to the poll to elect the nation’s next president for a four year term.  There are two serious contenders for that post: The incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. He was a former military head of state and a retired Army General. He was shoved out of power in 1985 through a military coup de’ tat. The coup plotters alleged that Buhari was very incompetent.

…” the initial objectives and programmes of action which were meant to have been implemented since the ascension to power of the Buhari Administration in January 1984 have been betrayed and discarded. The present state of uncertainty and stagnation cannot be permitted to degenerate into suppression and retrogression.” Brigadier Joshua Nimyel Dogonyaro who read the coup speech told a bewildered nation on August 27, 1985.

The other candidate is Atiku Abubakar, a retired Customs officer and a former vice president. There have been allegations of corruption against Atiku but no one has proof of it. And he has never been arraigned for it in any court of law in Nigeria or elsewhere.

He is said to be stupendously rich and runs a vast empire of companies. Some people also question the source of that huge wealth.

Political pundits have made diverse permutations of the contending candidates and how their outlooks might play out against the Nigerian environment, economy, history and sensibilities to predict who would or could win the election, Buhari or Atiku.

Buhari is the incumbent and flag bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), while Atiku is the presidential candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The PDP ruled Nigeria between May 29, 1999 and May 29, 2015. The party, its leaders and members were accused of massively looting the national purse. Some members of the party have been arraigned before the courts in Nigeria while others have been declared wanted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Some “smart” former PDP members who were alleged to be corrupt who are either being investigated or have their cases in court have crossed the divide and joined the APC. This has given them some respite from either further investigation or persecution.

Virtually all those being investigated or prosecuted are members of the PDP. There are legions of members of the APC who have erred in the past three years of the Buhari-led government who were caught red-handed for corruption who were not even investigated, let alone prosecuted.

Babachir David Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, is a classic example of the double-speak in the fight against corruption. Lawal was suspected, investigated and found culpable. He was never prosecuted. He was simply asked to go and sin no more. “He was simply told, just go and remain incommunicado”, a friend who understands the power-play in the Presidency said that was what he was told.

If Buhari wins the 2019 poll, would anything change? Yes. APC has promised Nigerians change to the “Next Level”. In the run up to the 2015 elections, Patience Jonathan, wife of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, while she campaigned for her husband’s re-election bid asked Nigerians to ask APC members and leaders to define the change they were promising Nigerians.

Three years down the line, Nigerians now know the change promised them by the APC.  The next level heralds more hardship for Nigerians. President Buhari said so. He has seen it that his government does not have the capacity to mitigate whatever challenges that Nigerians will face in the years ahead, especial with oil price heading south.

As usual, after May29, Buhari will retain the current underperforming ministers. If he does not retain them, it means Nigeria will not have ministers until December, 2019. Heads of departments and agencies will remain; those in acting capacity will continue to act. Why? The president does not have the zeal, do we say, the capacity to make new appointments. Again, the only changes that will happen in appointment will be in the Presidency: Lawal will return as Secretary to the Government of the Federation and Lawal Musa Daura will return as the Director-General of the Department of State Security Service (DSS).

Currently, there are 20.93 million unemployed Nigerians. This figure will increase. Why? The government will introduce new measures aimed at “fighting corruption” that will disrupt the economy further.  At the inception of this administration, the Treasury Single Account (TSA) was implemented to fight “corruption”. This was the beginning of the disruption of the economy.  Over 4,000 bank workers were laid off at the start of the implementation of TSA as the entire banking system shutdown their public sector accounts departments.

The economy will nose-dive deeper and more Nigerians will find it difficult to feed. There is a growing number of people eating from garbage bins on the street now. My fear is that those who throw edible items into the garbage bins will be so poor that there will be nothing to throw away.

More “corrupt” PDP members will join the APC to avoid prosecution. They will be crawling like the biblical Nicodemus to See Adams Oshiomhole, the ‘military commandant’ of the APC, to beg him to allow them to join the APC. Don’t ask me what herdsmen will do to Nigerians. Your guess is as good as mine. Religious and tribal fault-lines in Nigeria will widen.
This is not a prophecy. Let Buhari prove me wrong.

John Osadolor