Dangerous signs ahead of Edo gubernatorial election

Signs that the off-season gubernatorial election slated for September 19 in Edo State may be attended by violence manifested last Saturday, July 25, 2020.

Reports had it that there were some violent altercations between the supporters of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and those of the All Progressives Congress (APC) near the palace of the Oba of Benin, Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo, Oba Ewuare II, when PDP governors, led by the Chairman of the PDP Campaign Council, Governor Nyesom Wike, who were in the state to flag off the campaign of its candidate, Governor Godwin Obaseki, visited the Oba.

The opposing groups were said to have poured invectives on the parties and their candidates. Reports also had it that some of them sustained injuries and a few were also arrested by the police.

Since Saturday, the PDP and APC have been treading verbal tackles over who caused the shouting match.

The standoff has further heightened apprehension in the state and raised the likelihood of a bloody poll.

Observers say that the Saturday’s event should send a signal to the relevant agencies involved in the conduct of the election in Edo on what they need to do to checkmate the looming violence, of the dimension that took place in Kogi State during the November 16 gubernatorial election.

Analysts are of the opinion that the circumstances surrounding the election should make it more compelling for the security agencies to be on their guard to keep the peace before, during and after the exercise.

Tony Ali, a political scientist and public affairs commentator, believes that now is the right time for the police and other security agencies directly connected with the Edo election to do their thinking very well in order to deploy the necessary intelligence, men and materials to nip in the bud any violence being planned by politicians.

“The circumstances surrounding the emergence of Governor Obaseki as candidate of the PDP and Ize-Iyamu as that of the APC, should send a signal to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Nigeria police that Edo election is going to be a war. To that extent, every effort should be made by the police to put trouble makers at bay,” Ali said.

Sounding pessimistic, he said: “But I am afraid if that route will be taken by the concerned agencies. We may end up having a repeat of the Kogi episode with all the warning signals that should propel us into action. I hope this does not happen.”

President Muhammadu Buhari has also been urged to wade into the political crisis in Edo State to avert wanton bloodshed during the polls.

“I want to call on President Buhari to live up to his pledge of instituting violence-free elections across the country. It is unfortunate that since 2019, elections in the country have not been free and fair. They have been bloody,” Casmir Okey, a policy analyst, told BusinessDay.

According to Okey, “I do not like the idea of President sending out press releases condemning violence and bloodshed at elections when his government should have nipped such violence in the bud, if it wanted to. We saw the bloodshed in Kogi even though there were signs leading up to the elections that things were tending towards that.”

He further noted that Buhari being the President of all Nigerians and not just of the APC must take interest in what happens to every citizen of the country.

“What I expect from President Buhari is to give the Inspector-General of Police a marching order to ensure that there is no drop of blood of any citizen in Edo State on account of the forth-coming election. If this is done, I tell you that there would be nothing like violence there. What has reduced Nigeria into a banana republic is this culture of silence on the part of the President.

“He feigns ignorance of what is going on, until the worst happens. It is the same reason Fulani herdsmen are overrunning the country; same reason the Miyetti Allah people see themselves as more Nigerians than any other person and are suffering from entitlement mentality. I think this has to stop,” the policy analyst said.

Recall that in the run-up to the Kogi election last year, there were disturbances caused by thugs rented by politicians. Natasha Akpoti, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate in the state, was harassed and intimidated to no end. Her campaign office was torched by supporters of another opponent.

She got the shock of her life when she was prevented from attending a meeting convened by the INEC to address the issue of security. Despite the presence of the high echelon of the police at the meeting, who also watched her being harassed at the entrance of the venue of the meeting, she was bounced back without help.

Akpoti continued to draw the attention of the police, other security agencies and the INEC on the need to make the election free and fair, but the bloodshed on the Election Day attested to the fact that nobody listened to her.

The case of Edo State is not likely to be different on September 19. The reasons are obvious. Whereas the APC would try to do everything possible to assert their supremacy and to prove that the Adams Oshiomhole’s magic is still potent in the state, the PDP on the other hand would want to prove that the death of godfatherism in the state under Godwin Obaseki has become total and permanent.

A politician, who chose to remain anonymous, told BusinessDay that Oshiomhole was ready to stake everything to ensure that Obaseki does not return to the Edo Government House.

“The battle is beyond Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu. It is Oshiomhole’s battle, and the reasons are very clear. One, victory for APC at the September 16 election would re-launch Oshiomhole back to relevance in the party. Even if he does not return to his position as national chairman of the party, he could be given something good in the APC government. Two; if he loses to the PDP, that could mean a journey into political oblivion, and he knows this.

“For Obaseki also, it is a battle that must be won. One, it would help him to declare a total annihilation on Oshiomhole’s reign and kingdom in Edo. That would mean a lot for him. Two, it would also solidify his stay and relevance in the PDP. If for any reason he loses the election, he would be treated as a leper thereafter. What the PDP is expecting is the trophy, anything short of that would not be cherished,” the politician said