Too many ‘ifs’ on the way to Dickson’s 2020 Senatorial ambition
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As speculation continues to grow on the ambition of Governor Henry Seriake Dickson of Bayelsa State to represent Bayelsa West Senatorial District at the Senate after his two terms as governor in 2020, Samuel Ese takes a look at the possible scenarios that could help him actualise his dream.
It is no longer news that Bayelsa State Governor, Henry Seriake Dickson has the intention of representing Bayelsa West Senatorial District at the Upper House of the National Assembly, but the journey seems fraught with several unknown, which could make it a long shot in the dark.
The plot looks simple on the outside: Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, former Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure gets the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket for the Senate and remains there until Dickson’s tenure expires, he then resigns paving the way for a bye-election which the governor will contest and win.
Since the governorship election would have been conducted and won by the PDP, whoever was running mate to the eventual governor would resign for Ewhrudjakpo to become the new deputy governor or so the proponents of the plot believe.
If Ewhrudjakpo wins the party primary and subsequent election, he will be sworn in as a Senator on June 6, 2018 about the time that the governorship race in Bayelsa State will begin in earnest with declaration by aspirants and party primaries looming.
But before Ewhrudjakpo wins the PDP ticket, he must fight a credibility battle, which he must win as stakeholders in the senatorial district do not see him as a core Ijaw man though he is from Ofoni community in Sagbama Local Government Area, one of the prominent Tarakiri communities.
Ofoni people have been and are still members of Tarakiri Council of Chiefs and play important roles in the traditional institution in Tarakiri clan, but what is seen as his undoing is the Urhobo language which the Ofoni people speak although they also speak the Ijaw language fluently.
He will contest the party primary against incumbent Foster Ogola who is from Sagbama community; he believes that Dickson is using Ewhrudjakpo to fight him for the Senate seat and the contest for the party ticket can become a titanic one.
Another intrigue is that PDP is believed to have offered their Senators, including Ogola, automatic tickets in a bid to maintain their strength at the Senate and consequently shield Senate President, Bukola Saraki from impeachment by the All Progressives Congress (APC) senators.
Should it be otherwise and Ewhrudjakpo emerges Senator, he is to hold down the seat for Dickson, he will not participate in the governorship race and someone else will emerge running mate to the PDP governorship candidate who will work for the anticipated victory.
Can he resign for the governorship election? The answer is no as once he resigns, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has 90 days to organise a bye-election by which time, Dickson is still on his seat and will want to complete his second tenure and make a record as the first governor to complete two terms in Bayelsa State.
So, on February 14, 2020, Dickson will leave office and possibly, Ewhrudjakpo will resign next day while INEC will have 90 days to organise the bye-election and whoever is deputy governor resigns for whatever reasons after days or weeks as the number two citizen in the state.
Much also depends on the candidate that the opposition parties will field against the PDP candidate; with the issues swirling around the PDP candidature, a strong opposition candidate who has the sympathy of the people can so easily steal the show.
However, if the APC which is deemed the strongest among all the opposition political parties fields one time Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Matthew Karimu, who is being seen as a rank outsider, then the PDP can carry the day whichever candidate it fields.
With a lot of ‘ifs’ in the plot and its intricacy, what most stakeholders are looking at is its workability.
Firstly, Dickson and Ewhrudjakpo are childhood friends and the latter was his personal assistant while he was representing Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives and was later appointed his Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, a position he held for nearly six and half years.
Ewhrudjakpo has enjoyed power being a member of the kitchen cabinet and one of the most powerful persons in the state; he will also enjoy all the trappings and wealth that other senators enjoy including the jumbo salary and allowances.
Being a lawyer and a very smart person, he will immediately make his mark at the Senate, there is no doubt about that and after less than a year, he will resign to become a deputy governor, the number two citizen, a position that is at the beck and call of the chief executive officer.
He can easily endear himself to the Senate leadership and the people of the senatorial district which can make it difficult for him to resign should he want to; the President of the Senate can call whoever and with the enormous power he wields request that the lawyer and outspoken Senator be allowed to remain at the red chamber.
On the other hand, he can be caught up with the glory and glamour of the red chamber and refuse to resign especially with his new found responsibility and importance, and then break childhood allegiances resulting in deep enmity with his godfather.
Something that is intriguing is that at the time his resignation is expected to take place, Dickson will no longer be governor and will not have the power to do anything about it except to mull; he will have absolutely nothing to do about it unless they swore to an oath, many of which are being broken these days.
Then, if Ewhrudjakpo truly resigns, will the deputy governor also resign or will he rather be ready to face impeachment if he refuses to resign, assuming that Ewhrudjakpo’s compensation for resigning from the Senate is to become the deputy governor of Bayelsa State?
Will the new administration be ready to deal with such crisis just days, weeks or months into its life and how long will Dickson be prepared to wait or will he wait for his childhood friend to be compensated before taking a shot at the Senate?
Will the governor that will emerge in 2020 be prepared to lose his deputy in such a short time when they had no crisis of confidence, no quarrel, no issues at all and how will the deputy governor be compensated to leave his position?
Or if Ewhrudjakpo refuses to resign, is there a trap somewhere that can lead to the annulment of his election, then he is denied the ticket for a rerun so that Dickson can become the party candidate and eventually win?
All these are possible scenarios that can play out and importantly, for Dickson to go to the Senate in 2020 after his two terms as governor, the incumbent Senator must resign and if his compensation is the deputy governor position, the incumbent deputy governor must also resign – two key resignations.
Whether it will work out as planned or not, time will tell.