CBN’s macroeconomic confidence index remains unchanged in May
By The overall confidence index (CI) on the macro economy remained unchanged at 28.9 index points in May 2018, the same as the level recorded in April 2018.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Monday released the May 2018 Business Expectations Survey (BES), which it carried out during the period May 11-22, 2018 with a sample size of 650 businesses nationwide.
A response rate of 91.8 per cent was achieved, and the sample covered the services, industry, wholesale/retail trade and construction sectors.
The optimism on macroeconomy in the current month was driven by the opinion of respondents from services (17.6 points), industrial (9.2 points) construction (1.2 points) and wholesale/retail trade sectors (0.9), while the drivers of the optimism for next month were services (39.5 points), industrial (19.5 points), wholesale/retail trade (3.3 points) and construction (3.2 points) sectors.
Respondents from services, industrial, wholesale/retail trade and construction sectors expressed optimism on own operations in the current month with indices of 10.2, 3.7, 0.2 and -0.3, respectively when compared with 7.6, 0.0, 0.3 and 0.3 in April 2018, respectively.
The businesses outlook for June 2018 shows a greater confidence on the macro economy at 65.5 index points.
The surveyed firms identified insufficient power supply (67.6 points), unfavourable economic climate (55.5 points), high interest rate (54.4 points), unclear economic laws (53.7 points), financial problems (52.6), unfavourable political climate (49.7 points), and insufficient demand (48.6 points) as the major factors constraining business activity in the current month.
Respondents’ outlook on the volume of total order and business activity in May 2018 was less optimistic, as the index stood at 15.1 and 16.1 points, resppectively when compared to 17.2 and 18.5 points, respectively recorded in the previous month. However, respondents’ outlook on financial conditions (working capital) and average capacity utilization improved, as the indices stood at 14.1 and 22.7 index points, respectively when compared with the 8.5 and 20.0 points, respectively recorded in April 2018.
The improvement in the average capacity utilization (CUI) index can be attributed to the positive outlook on financial conditions.
HOPE MOSES-ASHIKE